Why Are Leads Down Even Though Marketing Spend Is Up?

🕒 3 minute read

If you are spending more on marketing but seeing fewer leads, you are not alone.

This is one of the most common leadership questions right now.

✅Budgets are stable or increasing.
✅Campaigns are running.
✅Traffic in GA4 might even look steady.

Yet leads feel softer. Less predictable. Harder to scale.

So what is actually happening?

1. Marketing Spend Is Still Growing

Marketing budgets remain elevated.

According to the Gartner 2023 CMO Spend Survey, marketing budgets averaged 9.1% of company revenue in 2023, with digital accounting for more than 56% of total spend.

WordStream’s 2023 Google Ads Benchmarks Report also shows rising cost per click across industries, particularly in high intent verticals like healthcare and hospitality.

So yes, you may be spending more.

But you are also competing harder for fewer visible moments.

And that visibility gap is often where performance starts to slip.

2. Website Traffic Does Not Equal Being Chosen

Ruler Analytics’ 2024 Conversion Rate Benchmark Report shows average website conversion rates across industries between 2% and 4%.

That means most visitors never convert.

But the deeper issue is this.

Before someone clicks your website, they first need to see you.

• Search engines curate results.
• Maps prioritize certain listings.
• AI summaries highlight only a small number of sources.

Google Analytics shows what happens after someone visits.
It does not show how often you were actually included in the shortlist.

That upstream presence, the part before traffic, is what DMscore measures as “Online Share of Attention”.

If you are unsure how often your business is actually being surfaced in your market, we can show you in a short working session.

3. Zero Click Search Is Now the Norm

According to the SparkToro and Datos 2024 Zero Click Search Study, nearly 58% of Google searches in the United States end without a click to another website.

More than half of searches now resolve directly on the results page.

For local businesses, this means someone can search and choose directly from:

The Google Map Pack:
✅Reviews
✅Business profile previews
✅AI generated summaries

Without ever visiting your website.

If you are measuring performance only by website traffic or form fills, you may be missing where decisions are actually being made.

DMscore surfaces how often your local business appears in those environments compared to competitors in your ZIP codes.

Not impressions in isolation.
Comparative visibility in your actual market.

If you would like to see how your visibility compares locally, book a demo and we will walk you through it live.

4. AI Is Concentrating Attention

Google AI Overviews, introduced in 2024, display summarized responses with a limited set of highlighted sources.

• Fewer links.
• Fewer visible businesses.
• More concentrated attention.

If you are not consistently included in those surfaced options, increasing paid spend may amplify downstream activity while upstream visibility declines.

This is often the missing link when budgets go up, reports look stable and leads feel down.

Tracking your Online Share of Attention shows whether your presence is rising, holding steady or being overtaken before it impacts revenue.

Most leaders are surprised when they see how visibility shifts by ZIP code. If you are curious, we are happy to show you what your market looks like.

5. Traditional Analytics Was Built for a Click First Web

Google Analytics answers:

• How many sessions?
• What was the conversion rate?
• Where did traffic come from?

It does not answer:

• Are we consistently shown in Maps?
• Are we being included in AI summaries?
• Has a competitor gained ground in our area?
• Did our visibility drop before leads dropped?

DMscore complements your existing analytics by measuring what happens before the click, giving you context that explains performance instead of only reporting it.

The Real Question

Instead of asking, why are leads down, ask:

Has our visibility in local discovery narrowed?

If attention becomes more concentrated, increasing spend alone will not fix it.

You may be optimizing campaigns while quietly losing share in the earliest stage of decision making.

And that stage now determines everything that follows.

Final Thought

If leads are down even though marketing spend is up, it does not automatically mean your team is underperforming.

It may mean discovery has changed.

AI filters earlier.
Maps narrow options.
Zero click behavior is increasing.

In that environment, growth begins before the click.

Understanding your Online Share of Attention gives you clarity about whether you are being included in the moments that matter or being filtered out before traffic even begins.

If you would like a clear view of how visible your business really is in your local market, schedule a DMscore demo. We will walk through your data together with no pressure.

Sources:
Gartner 2023 CMO Spend Survey
WordStream 2023 Google Ads Benchmarks Report
Ruler Analytics 2024 Conversion Rate Benchmark Report
SparkToro and Datos 2024 Zero Click Search Study
Google Search Central documentation on AI Overviews, 2024